000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC FRI JUL 28 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N107W 1011 MB MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE NOTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY 
OF THE LOW. THE SHOWS NO IMMEDIATE SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS
IT IS RATHER BROAD AND UNDER NORTHEAST SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 360 NM OF LOW OVER NW 
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM N OF CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 90W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 13N91W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 103W IS MOVING W 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 8N-12N.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 3N ALONG 124W/125W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE.

..ITCZ...

AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 9N93W 10N103W 7N110W 13N124W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 130W-136W AND NORTH OF 
THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N113W 12N116.5W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W-99W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEST OF 125W

N OF 15N...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N126W AND
EXETNDS SW TO 27N134.5W MID/UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 32N139W SW TO 28N14W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS CONFLUENT 
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH. BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED W OF 136W IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE CYCLONIC VORTEX W OF THE AREA NEAR 20N143W. THE FLOW 
IS GENERALLY E-SE ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ABUNDANT MODERATE AND 
DRY AIR EVIDENT HERE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE
W OF 137W. THE TROUGH IF FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NOW CORNER
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AND MOVE TO A LINE FROM 
32N127W TO 26N140W BY WED AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS 
IN BEHIND IT.

S OF 15N...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N140W TO 10N140W.
MODERATE TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE INDICATED HERE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND DATA. THESE WINDS ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
...MOSTLY DUE TO DEBRIS BLOWOFF CLOUDINESS...FROM CONVECTION 
ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS WESTWARD TO 137W.

EAST OF 125W

MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 27N121W MOVING W
15-20 KT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PRESENT N OF 18N BETWEEN
114W-121W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THEN MERGE WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED 
ABOVE UNDER W OF 125W OVER THE NW PART MON. STRONG NE FLOW IS 
EVIDENT ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHICH 
CONTINUES TO CREATE A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY TROPICAL LOWS 
THAT FORM TO FURTHER BECOME ORGANIZE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
AMPLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED WESTWARD WITH 
THIS NE FLOW MAINLY S OF 24N BETWEEN 118W-125W AND OVER ENTIRE 
AREA E OF 118W. ELSEWHERE E OF 125W ...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY AIR IS NOTED...WHILE AT THE SURFACE BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS 
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

$$
AGUIRRE