000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270247
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC THU JUL 27 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 25.8N 115.8W 1000 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL
27 MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION 
AROUND EMILIA HAS DECREASED AND IS DISORGANIZING. EMILIA 
CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER 
WATERS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM AND WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG BANDS CONVECTION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND 
SEA OF CORTEZ FROM 23N-28N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 82W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND 82W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 93W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 88W-92W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT.

..ITCZ...
AXIS 9N80W 10N90W 14N113W 9N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG 180 NM WIDE 80W TO 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE 240 NM WIDE 
100W TO 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE  90NM WIDE 118W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N132W WITH A 
TROUGH TO THE N TO NR 32N 137W AND S TO 10N130W. ONLY DRY 
SUBSIDING AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A LARGE RIDGE 
EXTENDS E OF THE TROUGH INTO MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL PACIFIC 
WATERS. THE ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA IS CENTERE NEAR 
23N103W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS NEAR 97W MOVING WSW. AN AREA OF 
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. 
THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SOME 
ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY 
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$
DGS