000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1630 UTC WED JUL 26 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 24.4N 113.5W 989 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 
26 MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT GUSTS 75 
KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION AROUND 
EMILIA HAS BECOME NEARLY SYMMETRICAL AROUND THE CENTER
WITH A COUPLE OF BANDS MOVING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE 
SEA OF CORTEZ. EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NW AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT 
MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM AND WITHIN 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BANDS CONVECTION OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA AND SEA OF CORTEZ FROM 23N-28N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 79W MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND 82W.

TROPICAL WAVE N OF 4N ALONG 91W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 88W-92W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 3N-16N ALONG 112W N OF 4N MOVING W 15 KT.

..ITCZ...
AXIS 9N84W 10N90W 8N95W 15N110W 8N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 4N E OF 82W. AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 
88W AND 92W AND WITHIN 300 NM N OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 106W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
115W TO 120W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 130W TO 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N133W WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE N OF THE ITCZ W OF 125W.
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTER REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH 
A TROUGH SEPARATING TO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE THROUGH 
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS 
TO 28N11W. THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER N CENTRAL 
ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR MAZATLAN. THE FLOW AROUND THESE SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO MOVE 
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NW ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THIS MOTION WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EMILIA OVER COLDER WATERS AND 
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN. STRONG UPPER LEVEL E WINDS 
COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE E PACIFIC S OF 18N E OF 120W.
 
$$
DGS