000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252057
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 21.8N 111.6W 991 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL
25 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT.  SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE 
TO SPIRAL AROUND THE CENTER OF EMILIA BUT DEEP CONVECTION DOES 
NOT PERSIST IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE 
NW AND WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 
48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 
NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 87W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 83W-88W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 9N-20N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. 

..ITCZ...8N78W 14N105W 10N125W 12N135W 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W TO 82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
88W TO 92W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 103W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
24N124W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE W 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N104W. THE TWO ANTICYCLONES ARE SEPARATED 
BY A TROUGH FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 22N118W. EXTENSIVE MOIST 
AIR EXISTS S OF 20N AND E OF 120W WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N131W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
HOWEVER AT THE LOW LEVEL A WIDESPREAD AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD ARE N OF A LINE FROM 15N118W TO 
20N140W. 
$$
DGS