000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251500
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
.TROPICAL STORM EMILIA NEAR 20.6N 111.2W 991 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 
25 MOVING NW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 
55 KT WITH GUSTS 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE 
TO SPIRAL AROUND THE CENTER OF EMILIA BUT DEEP CONVECTION DOES 
NOT PERSIST IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE 
NW AND WILL MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 
48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 
NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 5N ALONG 85W MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 83W-88W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 106W FROM 9N-20N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE W COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 105W AND 107W. 

..ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 14N105W 10N125W 12N135W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS FROM 78W TO 
82W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 88W TO 92W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 
103W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 20N131W 
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MID AND 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
15N W OF 120W. HOWEVER AT THE LOW LEVEL A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD ARE N OF A 
LINE FROM 15N118W TO 20N140W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 24N124W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N104W.
THE TWO ANTICYCLONES ARE SEPARATED BY A TROUGH FROM THE TEXAS 
BIG BEND TO 22N118W. EXTENSIVE MOIST AIR EXISTS S OF 20N AND E 
OF 120W WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

$$
DGS