000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 110.1W...OR 270 NM 
S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 24/1500 UTC MOVING 
WNW 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO SPIRAL AROUND THE 
CENTER OF TOPICAL STROM EMILIA BUT HAVE DECREASED SOME AS 
COMPARED TO THE PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
OBSERVED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM OF CENTER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE NE QUADRANT. SOME OF 
THIS ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE CENTER CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE 
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MAZATLAN SO THE POSSIBILITY 
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EXISTS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

HURRICANE DANIEL IS JUST E OF THE AREA NEAR 16.3N 140.8W...OR 
820 NM ESE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AT 24/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 
12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST 
HONOLULU FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
HFOTCMCP1/WTPA21 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
STORM EMILIA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM W AND 100 NM E OF THE WAVE N OF12N.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...10N86W 16N100W 11N120W 14N130W 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN 98W TO 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 125W TO 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N130W TO 18N126W SEPARATES TWO MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES...ONE N OF 18N W OF 135W AND ANOTHER RIDGE 
TO THE E EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE SW 
U.S. TO 32N118W TO 17N120W. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS 
TO 25N107W. A 180 NM BAND OF SUBSIDENCE IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
THE AREA S OF 20N E OF 120W IS MOIST ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO 
NEAR 16N102W THEN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 

$$
DGS