000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 24 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.1N 139.8W...OR 1200 NM ESE 
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AT 24/0900 UTC MOVING WNW 13 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY ITS 
WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH 
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE HURRICANE.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 
90 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 109.7W...OR 325 NM 
SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 24/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS 
DECREASED AND BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW IS OBSERVED.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE CENTER 
CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND 
TUXPAN SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EXISTS IN 
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
STORM EMILIA. CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH THE SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 12N100W 10N120W 13N130W 8N140W.
EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH EMILIA CONVECTION SCATTERED MODERATE WITH  
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 12N TO 19N 
FROM 101.5W TO 111.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NORTH OF HURRICANE DANIEL.  THE FLOW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE 
CONTINUES TO MOVE DANIEL IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 23N FROM 127W TO 135W.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 
THE TWO TOPICAL CYCLONES AND THE ITCZ.  THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N 
EAST OF 120W IS MOIST ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED 
AREAS OF CONVECTION.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W.  ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 
FOR THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL