000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 24 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 138.7W...OR 1200 NM ESE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AT 24/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY ITS WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE EYE HAS FILLED IN AS A RESULT. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE 36-48 HRS AND BEYOND. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH CONTINUES TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE HURRICANE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 108.8W...OR 325 NM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 24/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY FROM 24 HRS AGO WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARING LIKE A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) ABOUT 30 NM IN DIAMETER. EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 420 NM NE QUADRANT...360 NM SE QUADRANT AND 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRADDLE THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MAN TUXPAN SO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EXISTS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-12N...AND IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N97W 12N114W 13N124W 8N133W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-130W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W-133W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE HURRICANE DANIEL CENTERED NEAR 22N137W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N140W THROUGH THE ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST TO 27N125W. THE FLOW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE DANIEL IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS NORTHWEST OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 23N140W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DR AIR IS NORTHEAST OF THE RIDGE. THE SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DANIEL. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 20N123W HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OR 15N BETWEEN 115W-135W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO THEN EXPANDS E INTO GUATEMALA. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DROPPING S FROM NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THIS IS RESULTING WEAKER EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IS PREDOMINANTLY NORTHEAST-EAST...EXCEPT NORTHERLY EAST OF 90W. THIS IS BRINGING CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA SOUTHWARD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. $$ AGUIRRE