000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.9N 135.7W...OR 1100 
NM ESE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 12 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS WEAKENED SOME SINCE YESTERDAY AND 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS TO THE N OF DANIEL AND HURRICANE CONTINUES 
TO MOVE WNW. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 107.4W...OR 165 NM 
WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 23/1500 UTC MOVING NW 9 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ 
WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE 
APPARENT AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH 
THE DEEP CONVECTION... SUGGESTING THAT THE ELY SHEAR MAY NOW BE 
RELAXING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 
NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND 200 NM OVER THE W 
SEMICIRCLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO 
BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF 
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W N OF 9N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. EMILIA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-16N  
BETWEEN 94W-96W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 10N95W 15N105W 11N115W 13N125W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS FROM 111W TO 119W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W.

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF HURRICANE DANIEL 
CENTERED NEAR 21N133W A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 20N140W THROUGH THE 
ANTICYCLONE NE TO 27N126W. THE FLOW AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE 
CONTINUES TO MOVE DANIEL IN A WNW DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS NW OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 
23N140W. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NE OF THE 
RIDGE. THE SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER ANTICYCLONE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE 
OUTFLOW TO THE N/NW OF DANIEL. A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 18N122W...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OR 15N BETWEEN 115W-130W.

A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SWD 
OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO THEN EXPANDS E INTO GUATEMALA. 
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DROPPING S FROM NRN MEXICO APPEARS TO 
BE WEAKENING THE RIDGE...THUS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE ELY SHEAR 
OVER T.S. EMILIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IS 
PREDOMINANTLY NE/E...EXCEPT NLY E OF 90W. THIS IS BRINGING 
CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM TSTMS OVER MEXICO AND CNTRL AMERICA SWD OVER 
THE PACIFIC WATERS.

$$
DGS