000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 134.6W...OR 1200 NM ESE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AT 23/0900 UTC MOVING W 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS BEGUN A SLOW WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY A WARMING AND RAGGED EYE...AND A LESS CIRCULAR RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED NE OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 22N132W AND IS PRODUCING A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW JET OUT THE N/NW SIDE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE STORM ARE MARGINAL AT 26C...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS IT MOVES W...FURTHERING THE WEAKENING TREND. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 106.5W...OR 145 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 23/0900 UTC MOVING NW 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EMILIA WAS LOOKING RATHER PALTRY EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT HAS MADE A VIGOROUS COMEBACK. CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION... SUGGESTING THAT THE ENVIRONMENTAL ELY SHEAR MAY NOW BE RELAXING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN BANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 100W-103W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W/97W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE BROADER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. EMILIA...BUT PATCHY CLOUDS AND CONVECTION EXTENDS ACROSS AN AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 94W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 97W-102W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N90W 16N103W 11N110W 13N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 11N102W 3N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-118W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...ONE EXTENDING FROM 28N140W TO 29N130W...AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 22N130W TO THE NE OF HURRICANE DANIEL. A SHEAR AXIS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO ANTICYCLONES FROM 30N129W TO 21N140W WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS. THE SHEAR AXIS AND UPPER HIGH NEAR 22N130W CONTINUE TO FOSTER A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW JET TO THE N/NW OF DANIEL WITH THE STORM ITSELF EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP ELY FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER LOW COULD FORM FROM THIS SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AND SLOW DOWN THE WWD MOVEMENT OF DANIEL. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED E OF DANIEL NEAR 19N123W AND IS ROLLING SLOWLY WWD...DRAGGING TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS IT FROM FARTHER E. E OF 115W...A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ALONG THE W COAST OF MEXICO THEN EXPANDS FARTHER E WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR SE MEXICO/GUATEMALA. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DROPPING S FROM NRN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THE RIDGE...THUS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE ELY SHEAR OVER T.S. EMILIA. UPPER FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IS PREDOMINANTLY NE/E...EXCEPT NLY E OF 90W. THIS IS BRINGING CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM TSTMS OVER MEXICO AND CNTRL AMERICA SWD OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS. $$ BERG