000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 23 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 133.2W...OR 1545 
EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AT 23/03000 UTC MOVING WNW 11 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL REMAINS A VERY SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE 
WITH AN EYE THAT MEASURES ABOUT 25 NM. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE.
BEST OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO 
ITS N.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 105.3W...OR 175 NM 
S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 23/0300 UTC MOVING NNW 10 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1024 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER IS UNDER
THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM EAST 
SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 19N-21N
EAST OF 107W. EASTERLY SHEAR STILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS 
CYCLONE...BUT IS WEAKER THAN 24 HRS AGO. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME 
SLOW INTENSIFICATION. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS IT REACHING 
MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS BY 30 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 8N MOVING W 12 KT. THE STRONG 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLIER OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE HAS 
DISSIPATED. REMAINING CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AS 
DESCRIBED BELOW.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N90W 17N104W 11N111W 15N125W 
10N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NORTH OF 4N BETWEEN 80W-84W...WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
AND BETWEEN 99W-102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 128W-130W...AND WITHIN
30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 
125W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED 
NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE DANIEL NEAR 22N132W. TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS 
INTO THE AREA FROM 32N130W SOUTHWEST TO 27N140W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXITS NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 126W. SOME MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM DANIEL 
AHEAD OF THE SHEAR AXIS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 127W-136W. A LARGE 
MID/UPPER VORTEX MOVING WEST ABOUT 15-20 KT IS NOTED TO THE 
NORTHEAST OF DANIEL NEAR 21N121W. THE LOW HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A CONFLUENCE AREA TO ITS WEST 
IS RESULTING IN 90 NM WIDE SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 
16N123W TO 20N124W TO 26N124W.

ELSEWHERE...A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO...BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS 
EAST OF 114W...WHICH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS
EMILIA BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN 24 HRS AGO. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG AND OFFSHORE MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER LEFTOVER UPPER 
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER
THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

$$
AGUIRRE