000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222213 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 131.9W...OR 1250 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 22/2100 UTC MOVING W 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL REMAINS A VERY SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT ITS LARGE CIRCULAR HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE DURING THE DAY. THE EYE MEASURE ABOUT 25 NM. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. BEST OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 22N103W. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 104.6W...OR 255 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 22/2100 UTC MOVING N 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER HAS SLIP UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS IN CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM WEST SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 102W-108W. EASTERLY SHEAR STILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS CYCLONE...BUT IS WEAKER THAN 24 HRS AGO. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS IT REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 8N MOVING W 15 KT. STRONG CONVECTION EARLIER OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE IS NOW WEAKENING NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 94W-97W WHICH INCLUDES ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 11N90W 15N104W 11N110W 14N120W 10N130W 7.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 4N BETWEEN 79W-82W...WITHIN 110 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W-99W...AND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 28N EAST OF 130W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF HURRICANE DANIEL NEAR 22N130W. TO THE NORTHWEST OF ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N130W SOUTHWEST TO 27N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXITS NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 126W. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM DANIEL AHEAD OF THE SHEAR AXIS FROM 19-25N BETWEEN 127W-134W. A LARGE MID/UPPER VORTEX MOVING WEST ABOUT 15-20 KT IS NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIEL NEAR 20.5N120W. THE LOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A CONFLUENCE AREA TO ITS WEST IS RESULTING IN 90 NM WIDE SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 16N122W TO 22N123W TO 26N123W. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MEXICO...BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN PRODUCING NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW ACROSS PACIFIC WATERS EAST OF 110W...WHICH CONTINUES TO RESULT IN EASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS EMILIA BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN 24 HRS AGO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ALONG AND OFFSHORE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER LEFTOVER UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THESE UPPER LEVEL WINDS. $$ AGUIRRE