000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 130.8W...OR 1290 
NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 22/1500 
UTC MOVING W 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS A LARGE 
CIRCULAR EYE AROUND 30 NM IN DIAMETER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT 120 NM IN ALL QUADRANTS FROM THE 
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY ELY OVER THE SYSTEM WITH 
THE BEST OUTFLOW TO THE W AND NW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NNE.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 104.6W...OR 850 NM 
SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 22/1500 UTC MOVING NNW 12 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS EXPOSED...HOWEVER 
CONVECTION IS FORMING AROUND THE CENTER. ELY SHEAR STILL COVERS 
THE SYSTEM AND IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE W SIDE 
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG AS THIS TIME 
YESTERDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM 
SW AND 180 NM NW QUADRANTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 8N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 12N95W 10N105W 16N125W 9N140W. 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 87W-92W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N132W TO 10N140W 
WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 30N W OF 135W.
TO THE E OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
CENTERED N OF HURRICANE DANIEL NEAR 22N130W. THE FLOW AROUND THE 
HIGH IS STIRRING DANIEL ALMOST DUE W. A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS 
LOCATED NE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 18N119W...OR ABOUT 580 NM SW OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. SURFACE RIDGE 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N136W TO 22N120W. A LARGE AREA BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THE RIDGE N 
OF 20N W OF 120W.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA 
ACROSS SW  MEXICO TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW IS AIDING THE TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 
EMILIA NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 103W-108W.

$$
DGS