000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220939 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 22 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 129.7W...OR 1250 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 22/0900 UTC MOVING W 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 933 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS HAD A LARGE CIRCULAR EYE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT HAS BEEN SHRINKING JUST A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HRS. THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION SHOWS AN ANNULAR PATTERN WITH THE EYE 30 NM WIDE AND NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDING OUT 150 NM IN ALL QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MOSTLY ELY OVER THE SYSTEM WITH THE BEST OUTFLOW TO THE W AND NW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NNE. TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 104.0W...OR 295 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 22/0900 UTC MOVING NNW 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BUILT EWD OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E AND THUS IT HAS STRENGTHENED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. STRONG ELY SHEAR STILL COVERS THE SYSTEM AND IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE W SIDE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUOUSLY REFORM. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SW AND 150 NM NW QUADRANTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 8N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS REACHED THE ERN END OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED FROM THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND MEXICO NWD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 12N94W 13N104W 11N108W 15N120W 8N130W 9N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION N OF 2N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N130W 28N140W. A SECOND AND MORE NOTICEABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF HURRICANE DANIEL NEAR 20N128W...AND AN UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES FROM 30N133W TO 10N138W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDED DANIEL TO THE NE AND W...WITH THE SYSTEM BEING RELATIVELY ISOLATED FROM PERIPHERAL MOISTURE SOURCES. A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS ALSO LOCATED NE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 18N118W...OR ABOUT 500 NM SW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND CONFLUENCE ON ITS W SIDE IS ALSO PRODUCING A NARROW SWATH OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE. ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES ACROSS W/CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH NE/E FLOW STREAMING ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS E OF 110W. ACCORDING TO UW-CIMSS PRODUCTS...THIS ENVIRONMENT IS PRODUCING ABOUT 20-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYERED NE/E SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA YET TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA. TSTM ACTIVITY FROM W/CENTRAL MEXICO SE TOWARDS COLOMBIA IS ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR...AND THE NE/E WINDS ARE ADVECTING IT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS TO THE S. A LARGE CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR PUERTO VALLARTA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 104W-107W AND IS MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE. $$ BERG