000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212217
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 127.4W...OR ABOUT 
1320 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 
21/2100 UTC MOVING W 10 FT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 125 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
935 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS ABOUT A 30 NM 
EYE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W OR 405 
NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 21/2100 UTC MOVING NNW AT 4 KT. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO NEAR
19N105W...AND IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE INTRUDING
INTO THE DEPRESSION AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AS A RESULT...THE 
CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SOUTHWEST 
AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM 
OF THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 8N IS MOVING W 15 KT. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ.

..ITCZ...
ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 12N100W 13N120W 8N125W 10N140W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 81W-85W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 
95W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N137W AND IS 
DRIFTING WESTWARD. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SOUTHEAST TO 
11N136W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING FROM 10N-25N WEST OF 
134W. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N126W. A MID/UPPER LOW MOVING 
WEST 15-20 KT IS CENTERED WEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR 19N114W. A 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N105W. THE 
HIGH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT IS SUPPORTING 
STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 
94W-103W. THE HIGH IS ALSO PRODUCING RATHER STRONG EASTERLY 
WINDS OVER THE AREA EAST OF 103W. AN ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL 
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
WATERS NEAR THE MEXICAN IS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD UNDER THESE 
EASTERLY WINDS.

$$
AGUIRRE