000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 125.3W...OR ABOUT 1090 
NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 21/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW 10 FT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 115 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS ABOUT A 40 NM 
EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 140 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
CENTER AND 110 NM S SEMICIRCLE.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.1N 103.1W OR 380 
NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 21/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 3 KT. AN 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ELY UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS AT 25-35 KT PROVIDING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE OF 
THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 250 NM W SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 79W-88W.

..ITCZ...
7N77W 12N100W 13N118W 
7N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 70 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF AXIS E OF 80W AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 79W AND 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N137W AND IS 
DRIFTING W. SHARP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 10N38W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN W OF 134W. TO THE E OF 
THE TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 20N124W...SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS DEPICT THIS FEATURE 
NICELY. A MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED SW OF SOCORRO ISLAND NEAR 
17N113W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER MEXICO NEAR 
18N97W. THE HIGH IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT IS 
SUPPORTING STRONG TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST 
BETWEEN 100W-109W. THE HIGH IS ALSO PRODUCING RATHER STRONG ELY 
SHEAR OVER THE WATERS E OF 110W AND IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E EXPOSED ON THE E SIDE OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION.

$$
DGS