000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 21 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.1N 124.3W...OR ABOUT 1130 
NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 21/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW 9 FT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED INCREASED EARLY
THIS EVENING TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 942 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
DANIEL HAS A 12 NM WIDE EYE. DANIEL CONTINUES TO SHOW AN 
ALMOST PERFECT SYMMETRICAL SHAPE TO ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IN 
ITS BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE TIGHTLY WRAP AROUND THE TIGHT
CORE SURROUNDING THE WELL-DEFINED EYE. EYE DIAMETER RANGES 
BETWEEN 21-25 NM. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM W 
QUADRANT...90 NM NW QUADRANT AND 60 NM ELSEWHERE FROM CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE EXCEPT OVER 
THE SE QUADRANT.

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N103W...OR 410 NM SSW OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWEST. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER 
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING
WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. THE CLOUD 
SYSTEM CENTER STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE AS 
EVIDENT IN THE EXPOSURE OF LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. 
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
EVENTUALLY TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HRS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNS OF 
ORGANIZATION ARE INDICATED BY THIS WAVE AT THE PRESENT TIME. 
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE ARE DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT NEW LOW PRESSURE MAY EVOLVE FROM THIS WAVE IN THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...8N78W 9N90W 11N100W 13N110W 14N120W THEN
RESUMES AT 9N125W THROUGH 12N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
106W-109W.
 
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 
92W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 21N137W. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 600 NM IN ITS S 
SEMICIRCLE...WITH MORE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF 20N. WEAK 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE 
AREA NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 132W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT EXTENDS FROM 16N136W TO 11N136W. IT IS
INDICATED AS ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. 
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 15N121W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE 
AREA NORTH OF 22N WEST 120W. 

ELSEWHERE...MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW 
AND STRENGTHEN...ISOLATING ITSELF FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE 
LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER LOW MOVING WEST ABOUT 17 KT
IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 19.5N110W AND IS 
DRAWING DRY AIR NORTH OF DANIEL SOUTHEAST AND NORTH TOWARDS
CENTRAL MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N 
EAST OF 100W. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY GIVE CONVECTION ENOUGH
LONGEVITY FOR IT TO ORGANIZE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.

$$
AGUIRRE