000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202239 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 123.4W...OR ABOUT 1015 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 20/2100 UTC MOVING WNW 8 FT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS A 12 NM WIDE EYE. DANIEL IS EXHIBITING AN ALMOST PERFECT SYMMETRICAL SHAPE TO ITS CLOUD STRUCTURE AND IN ITS BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE TIGHTLY WRAP AROUND ITS CORE. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM NW AND SE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE EXCEPT OVER THE SE QUADRANT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11.5N105W...OR 450 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUDS SYSTEM CENTER STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE AS EVIDENT IN THE EXPOSURE OF LOW CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TRACK WNW OVER THE NEXT FEW WITH POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W/85W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION ARE INDICATED BY THIS WAVE AT THE PRESENT. ONLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 4N85W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...7N78W 9N90W 11N100W 12N110W 13N120W THEN RESUMES TO 14N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS WEST OF 138W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH OF 11N BETWEEN 91W-99W AND ALSO FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 102W-105W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N126W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE TROUGH WHICH HAD EXTENDED SW OF THIS LOW HAS BROKEN OFF INTO A SEPARATE CUT-OFF LOW AND IS NOW CENTERED NEAR 21N137W. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 500 NM IN ITS S SEMICIRCLE...WITH MORE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF 20N. WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE AREA NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 132W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 14N136W. IT IS INDICATED AS ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 15N121W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 22N WEST 120W. ELSEWHERE...MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW AND STRENGTHEN...ISOLATING ITSELF FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER LOW MOVING WEST ABOUT 17 KT IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 19.5N110W AND IS DRAWING DRY AIR NORTH OF DANIEL SOUTHEAST AND NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N EAST OF 100W. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY GIVE CONVECTION ENOUGH LONGEVITY FOR IT TO ORGANIZE SOME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE