000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 122.6W...OR 950 NM SW OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 20/1500 UTC MOVING 
WNW 8 FT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 110 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL HAS A 40 NM WIDE 
EYE. THERE IS STILL SOME CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE EYE.  DEEP 
CONVECTION IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NE OF DANIEL WHICH HAS PRODUCED THE BEST 
OUTFLOW OVER THE N AND W QUADRANTS...AND IT IS A LITTLE 
RESTRICTED TO THE SE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM E AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG IS 
ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N103W...OR 400 NM SSW OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND NEARLY STATIONARY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL 
APPEARS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
INTERACT AND MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A NEW DEVELOPING LOW 
TO ITS E...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 36 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
100 NM SW SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
CENTERED WITHIN A LARGE AND ELONGATED GYRE...OR ABOUT HALFWAY 
BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR 11N103W AND A NEW DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 
11N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NORTH 
OF 13N WITHIN 200 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.  NO CIRCULATION IS NOTED 
WITH THIS CONVECTION.  SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...4N77W 10N100W 13N115W THEN CONTINUING 
12N135W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
3N TO 6N E OF 78.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 7N92.3W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 
11.2N103.9W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N125W MOVING NW 10-15 
KT. THE TROUGH WHICH HAD EXTENDED SW OF THIS LOW HAS BROKEN OFF 
INTO A SEPARATE CUT-OFF LOW AND IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 
20N136W. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 500 NM IN ITS S SEMICIRCLE...WITH MORE 
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS 
SUPPRESSED W OF 130W ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT SHOWS A WEAK AXIS ALONG 
24N LYING N OF HURRICANE DANIEL. THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA HAS 
FINALLY DISSIPATED.  ANOTHER LOW NEAR 14N135W 1009 MB IS 
STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD AND 
STRENGTHEN...ISOLATING ITSELF FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED 
OVER THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE 
HURRICANE NEAR 16N115W AND IS DRAWING DRIER AIR FROM W OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA SWD IN THE WAKE OF DANIEL. A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED 
UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO 
WITH MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NWD ON THE E SIDE OVER SE MEXICO. A 
DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SPANS MOST OF THE E PACIFIC WATERS 
WITH N/NE FLOW EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE MEXICO/CENTRAL 
AMERICA COAST TOWARDS THE EQUATOR.

$$
LL