000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 121.9W...OR 930 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 20/0900 UTC MOVING W 8 FT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAS NOW DEVELOPED A LARGER 30 NM WIDE EYE. THERE IS STILL SOME CLOUD DEBRIS WITHIN THE EYE...BUT IT HAS CONTINUED TO WARM AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE ENTIRE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NE OF DANIEL WHICH HAS PRODUCED THE BEST OUTFLOW OVER THE N AND W QUADRANTS...AND IT IS A LITTLE RESTRICTED TO THE SE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N103W...OR 400 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND NEARLY STATIONARY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND MERGE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A NEW DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS E...WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W N OF 5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS CENTERED WITHIN A LARGE AND ELONGATED GYRE...OR ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR 11N103W AND A NEW DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 11N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 93W-100W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DISCUSSION ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 11N92W 11N103W 14N116W 6N124W 13N133W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION GULF OF PANAMA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 89W-93W. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 136W-140W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N124W MOVING NW 10-15 KT. THE TROUGH WHICH HAD EXTENDED SW OF THIS LOW HAS BROKEN OFF INTO A SEPARATE CUT-OFF LOW AND IS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF 20N135W. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 500 NM IN ITS S SEMICIRCLE... WITH MORE MODERATE SUBSIDENCE N OF 20N. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS SUPPRESSED W OF 130W ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT SHOWS A WEAK AXIS ALONG 24N LYING N OF HURRICANE DANIEL. THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA HAS A PRES OF 1016 MB AND IS CENTERED NEAR 20N133W MOVING WSW 5 KT. THIS FEATURE WILL MERGE WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N135W THEN MOVE W IN THE ELY TRADES. ELSEWHERE...HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO PLOW WWD AND STRENGTHEN...ISOLATING ITSELF FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE E PACIFIC. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 16N115W AND IS DRAWING DRIER AIR FROM W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SWD IN THE WAKE OF DANIEL. A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO WITH MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NWD ON THE E SIDE OVER SE MEXICO. A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SPANS MOST OF THE E PACIFIC WATERS WITH N/NE FLOW EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE MEXICO/CENTRAL AMERICA COAST TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. $$ BERG