000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HURRICANE WARNING...
.HURRICANE DANIEL NEAR 12.0N 120.4W 973 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 19
MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT GUSTS
105 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 100 NM N
SEMICIRCLE...90 NM SE QUADRANT AND 80 NM SW QUADRANT.SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF CENTER AND ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER.

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N103W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY W.
THE CENTER CNTINUES TO DEVELOP SLOWLY. A SECOND LOW WILL FORM 
JUST TO THE E OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER 
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS LOW WOULD LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINANT 
CIRCULATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG 
THE ITCZ. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HRS.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...10N80W 14N97W 10N110W  12N130W 9N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 180 NM WIDE 80W TO 90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 240 NM WIDE 95W TO 105W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NEAR 30N125W MOVING W 5-10 KT. 
HAS A DEEP TROUGH TO BEYOND 19N140W. A LARGE AREA OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W N OF 25N AND W OF 
120W FROM 25N TO 18N AND W OF THE ITCZ S OF 18N. 
HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO DRAG A DEEP MOISTURE FIELD TO THE 
W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 17N115W 
AND IS PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW JET OVER THE N PART OF THE 
SYSTEM. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 
GUADALAJARA TO EL SALVADOR AND IS PRODUCING W/NW FLOW N OF 10N 
AND NEAR THE COAST.

$$
TORRES