000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191516 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 119.6W...OR 840 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 19/1500 UTC MOVING W 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL BEGAN DEVELOPING AN OBSCURED EYE BETWEEN LAST NIGHT BUT THE CONVECTION HAS NOT WRAPPED SOLIDLY AROUND THE CENTER. THE EYE APPEARS EMBEDDED ON THE N EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION...AND THEN TWO DISTINCT SPIRAL BANDS HAVE FORMED TO THE E AND W. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE N WITH AN OUTFLOW JET...BUT HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AROUND THE REST OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER AND ELSEWHERE NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF CENTER. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N103W...OR 455 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING W 5-10 KT. THE CENTER IS HALF-EXPOSED FROM A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE DUE TO N/NE SHEAR...AND THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP INDEPENDENTLY... BUT A SECOND LOW WILL FORM JUST TO THE E OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. THIS LOW WOULD LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 5N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION HAS WEAKEN IN THE ITCZ BUT CONTINUES OFF THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...LIKELY OVERTAKING THE LOW TO THE W. SEE ITCZ/DISCUSSION FOR CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 9N105W 14N111W THEN 15N132W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 7.2N89.2W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE POINT 11.2N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 10.4N103.5W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N123W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE W OF 130W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N124W TO 26N128W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO 14N140W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE NORTH OF THE ITCZ W OF 130W N OF 25N AND W OF 120W FROM 25N TO 18N AND W OF THE ITCZ S OF 18N. THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA IS CENTERED UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE NEAR 21N131W MOVING WSW 5-10 KT WITH A SHALLOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD SURROUNDING IT. OVER THE TROPICS...A WEAK 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N135W AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS IT EVOLVES INTO A TROUGH WITH THE REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. TO THE E...HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS DRAGGING A DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD TO THE W...REACHING 123W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 17N113W AND IS PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW JET OVER THE N PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID/UPPER FLOW E OF 110W IS MAINLY N/NE S OF 10N. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM GUADALAJARA TO EL SALVADOR AND IS PRODUCING W/NW FLOW N OF 10N AND NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND IS LIKELY DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE GIVEN THE PATTERN. $$ LL