000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190928 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.8N 119.0W...OR 840 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 19/0900 UTC MOVING W 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DANIEL BEGAN DEVELOPING AN OBSCURED EYE BETWEEN 0500-0600 UTC BUT THE CONVECTION HAS NOT WRAPPED SOLIDLY AROUND THE CENTER. THE EYE APPEARS EMBEDDED ON THE N EDGE OF THE CORE CONVECTION...AND THEN TWO DISTINCT SPIRAL BANDS HAVE FORMED TO THE E AND W. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED TO THE N WITH AN OUTFLOW JET...BUT HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AROUND THE REST OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N103W...OR 455 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING W 5-10 KT ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE LYING S OF 17N. THE CENTER IS HALF-EXPOSED FROM A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE DUE TO N/NE SHEAR...AND THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS LOW WILL LIKELY NOT DEVELOP INDEPENDENTLY...BUT A SECOND LOW WILL FORM JUST TO THE E OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE. THIS LOW WOULD LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 97W-106W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED ALONG THE ITCZ AND OFF THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST IS FORMING A LARGE RING THAT SURROUNDS THIS CIRCULATION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...LIKELY OVERTAKING THE LOW TO THE W. SEE ITCZ/DISCUSSION FOR CONVECTION. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 10N93W 9N100W 13N112W THEN 14N130W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N122W MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE W OF 130W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N124W TO 26N128W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OF THE LOW TO 14N140W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 14N-25N W OF 128W. THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA IS CENTERED UNDER THIS SUBSIDENCE NEAR 21N131W MOVING WSW 5-10 KT BUT A SHALLOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS FIELD SURROUNDING IT. OVER THE TROPICS...A WEAK 1012 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 13N135W AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS IT EVOLVES INTO A TROUGH WITH THE REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. TO THE E...HURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND IS DRAGGING A DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD TO THE W...REACHING 123W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR 17N113W AND IS PRODUCING A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW JET OVER THE N PART OF THE SYSTEM. THE MID/UPPER FLOW E OF 110W IS MAINLY N/NE S OF 10N. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM GUADALAJARA TO EL SALVADOR AND IS PRODUCING W/NW FLOW N OF 10N AND NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN 86W-99W AND IS LIKELY DUE TO LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE GIVEN THE PATTERN. $$ BERG