000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190322
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 19 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 11.9N 118.4W...OR 815 NM SW OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING W 
10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
WRAPPED NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE AND 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE 
OF CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR 
SOME RESTRICTION IN THE E QUADRANT.  

LOW 1008 MB NEAR 9N103W IS MOVING W 5 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS 
OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED 
TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING 
NORTHERLY SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL  
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 30 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT.  NO CONVECTION 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 103W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 10N105W 15N115W THEN CONTINUING 
FROM 15N130W TO 9N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 6.4N84.4W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FOLLOWING 
POINTS 7.8N99.3W AND 9.4N103.7W AND 13.4N109.7W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N122W AND IS MOVING WEST 15 KT.  THIS FEATURE AFFECTS THE AREA 
NORTH OF 23N EAST OF 136W.  ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE 
CENTER WITH THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS WEST OF 120W.

THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 120W IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT AND IS 
SUPPORTING VARIOUS AREAS OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ.  MULTI 
LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N W OF 115W WITH THE 
EMBEDDED REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA CENTERED NEAR 21N129W.  ELSEWHERE 
A BROAD TROUGH WITH THE EMBEDDED HURRICANE AND THE LOW NEAR 
9N102W.

$$
LL