000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181529 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 116.8W...OR 865 MILES...1395 KM...SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 18/1500 UTC MOVING W 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NE AND 90 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT FOR SOME RESTRICTION IN THE E QUADRANT. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE DANIEL WILL LIKELY ATTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. LOW 1008 MB NEAR 9N102W IS MOVING W 5 KT. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO WITHIN 90 NM OF THE S SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING NORTHERLY SHEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. A BROAD CIRCULATION IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS WWD TO 93W STRADDLING THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND ALIGNED MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N87W 8N95W 10N110W 12N115W...12N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 90W AND BETWEEN 93W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N121W MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW IS DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE SW UNITED STATES...SETTING UP THE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN. THE LOW HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE PENINSULA...RESTRICTING THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF 128W. THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 21N129W MOVING W 10 KT ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ONLY SHALLOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS SURROUND THE LOW...EXTENDING N AND W TO THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL PACIFIC... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF T.S. DANIEL EXTENDING WWD TO 10N140W...WITH DEEP EASTERLIES EXTENDING S TO THE EQUATOR. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED W OF 122W ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ THAT IS STILL PULLED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD BY THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA. FARTHER E...DIFFLUENCE IS EXPANDING OVER T.S. DANIEL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 15N112W. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TOWARDS W COAST OF MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION IS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF MEXICO (E OF 106W)...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE ITCZ SWD IS NLY...PRODUCING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT E OF 110W. GAP WINDS... NLY 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. $$ COBB