000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180938 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 115.2W...OR 705 SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 18/0900 UTC MOVING W 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN FORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIEL EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND NOW THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITH A SPIRAL BAND CURVING AROUND THE SRN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE N AND S...BUT IS A LITTLE RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG IN SPIRAL BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM SW QUADRANT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ABOUT 480 NM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO NEAR 9N101W MOVING WSW 5 KT. THE LOW IS COLLOCATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W. THE LOW HAS A SMALL CIRCULATION AND IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE CENTER WITH BROKEN BANDING EXTENDING TO THE W. VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 6N MOVING W 15 KT. A BROAD CIRCULATION IS NOTED EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS WWD TO 93W STRADDLING THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND ALIGNED MAINLY ALONG THE ITCZ. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N90W 9N101W 13N110W THEN 15N127W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 80W AND BETWEEN 83W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A LARGE MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N118W MOVING W 10 KT. THE LOW IS DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS NW MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO THE SW UNITED STATES...SETTING UP THE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON PATTERN. THE LOW HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE PENINSULA...RESTRICTING THE STRONGEST WINDS W OF 128W. THE REMNANT LOW OF CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 21N128W MOVING W 10 KT ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. ONLY SHALLOW STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS SURROUND THE LOW...EXTENDING N AND W TO THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TROPICAL PACIFIC... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS LIES W OF T.S. DANIEL FROM 13N120W TO 10N140W...WITH DEEP EASTERLIES EXTENDING S TO THE EQUATOR. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED W OF 122W ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BAND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ THAT IS STILL PULLED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD BY THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA. FARTHER E...DIFFLUENCE IS EXPANDING OVER T.S. DANIEL WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 17N108W. AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING NW TOWARDS MAZATLAN MEXICO. THE CIRCULATION IS PULLING DEEP MOISTURE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTS OF MEXICO (E OF 106W)...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE ITCZ SWD IS NLY...PRODUCING A DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ITCZ WITH SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT E OF 110W. $$ BERG