000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 18 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.3N 114.1W 1000 MB AT 
0300 UTC JUL 18 MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE AMD 
STRONG BUT REMAINS IN A RATHER BROAD AREA WITH A LACK OF 
CONCENTRATION NEAR THE CENTER.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
WITHIN 180 NM OF 12.3N114.8W.  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND 
STRONGEST IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS 
THIS SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

LOW PRES NEAR 22N127W 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA...MOVING 
WNW 8 KT. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. SYSTEM IS REDUCED TO A LARGE 
SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 120-180 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HRS...WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 36 HOURS.

LOW PRES NEAR 9NW101W 1008 MB IS MOVING W 5 KT. CIRCULATION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LOW AND 
MID LEVELS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 
NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GOOD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW IS NOTED.  THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 5N MOVE W 10-12 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 5N BUT SHOWS 
NO SIGNS OF CIRCULATION.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W NORTH OF 3N IS MOVING W 10-12 KT.  THE 
WAVE IS NOW OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE.  A LARGE AREA 
OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE POINT 11.4N99.8W.  THIS CONVECTION IS 
DISPERSED AND SHOWS ONLY WEAK SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING SEE 
DISCUSSION OF THE LOW.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...6N77W 10N105W 
15N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 129W TO 135W.

ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 85W TO 105W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AFFECTING THE 
AREA NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 128W.  THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION 
IS NEAR 29N118W AND IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KT.  
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.  MOST 
OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  

OTHERWISE IT IS A RATHER FLAT PATTERN WITH A VERY LARGE RIDGE 
EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. NORTH OF 
THE AREA AND EXTENDING TO ABOUT 15N.  THE EMBEDDED CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS THE EXCEPTION TO THE OVERALL PATTERN.  A BROAD 
TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 115W.

DRY AIR ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS 
WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N123W TO 17N125W TO 10N140W. BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS AREA NORTH OF 15N.

AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 115W EXCEPT 
FOR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF 
CARLOTTA WITH IS IN AN AREA ABOUT 240 NM IN DIAMETER CENTERED 
NEAR 21N127W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH WITH THE EMBEDDED TROPICAL 
STORM DANIEL AND LOW PRES IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL