000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172121 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 112.8W 1002 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 17 MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE AMD STRONG BUT REMAINS IN A RATHER BROAD AREA WITH A LACK OF CONCENTRATION NEAR THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 12N113.3W. OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED AND STRONGEST IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THIS SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW PRES NEAR 22N126W 1009 MB...REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA...MOVING W 8 KT. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. SYSTEM IS REDUCED TO A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120-180 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 48 HOURS. LOW PRES NEAR 9NW100W 1009 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOTED. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVE W 10-12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS NORTH OF 5N BUT SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CIRCULATION. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W NORTH OF 3N IS MOVING W 10-12 KT. THE WAVE IS NOW OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE. A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE POINT 11.4N99.8W. THIS CONVECTION IS DISPERSED AND SHOWS ONLY WEAK SIGNS OF CYCLONIC TURNING SEE DISCUSSION OF THE LOW. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG...5N77W 10N105W 15N127W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 128W TO 135W. ...DISCUSSION... MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AFFECTING THE AREA NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 128W. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS NEAR 29N117.5W AND IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KT. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW CENTER JUST NORTH OF 30N. MOST OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. OTHERWISE IT IS A RATHER FLAT PATTERN WITH A VERY LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXTENDING TO ABOUT 15N. THE EMBEDDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS THE EXCEPTION TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N EAST OF 115W. DRY AIR ALOFT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WEST OF A LINE THROUGH 32N123W TO 17N125W TO 10N140W. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS IN THIS AREA NORTH OF 15N. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N W OF 115W EXCEPT FOR THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA WITH IS IN AN AREA ABOUT 240 NM IN DIAMETER CENTERED NEAR 21N127W. $$ LL