000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171521 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 112.2W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC JUL 17 MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. CONVECTION WITHIN BANDS HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER AND THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT 1500 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-180 NM OF CENTER OVER ALL QUADRANTS WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS THIS SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LOW PRES NEAR 21N124W 1010 MB...REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA...MOVING W 11 KT. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. SYSTEM IS REDUCED TO A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120-180 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 48 HOURS. LOW PRES NEAR 10NW99W 1009 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE LOW CONFINED TO ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W NORTH OF 7N IS MOVING W 10-12 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 12.5N97W 13N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY TIED IN WITH THE ITCZ FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 91W-97W. THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 9N93W 12N110W 13N120W 6N135W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG N OF 4N E OF 84W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 105W...AND WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 23N139W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 21N144W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N131W MOVING WSW AT 15 KT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N134W TO 24N135W..OR BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS NOTED ABOVE. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE...OR FROM 12N-26N WEST OF 127W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA FROM 15N-21N WEST OF 135W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS LOCATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EASING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 135W AS THE LARGE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC VORTEX THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS NOW CROSSES INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS MOVES OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST NEAR 29N117. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE VORTEX TO 25N121W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 17N105W DOMINATES THE AREA INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVELS NEAR TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. THIS FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. IN BETWEEN THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N94W SOUTH TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE TROUGH NEAR 18N95W IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 18-20 KT. THE TROUGH MARKS A SHARP CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF EASTERLY WINDS TO ITS EAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE W SIDE. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 103W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1016 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 24N118W. A RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 22N112W. GAP WINDS...DIURNAL VARIATIONS IN NLY 20 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ COBB