000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170929 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 111.0W 1007 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 17 MOVING WEST OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HRS IN TERMS OF SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND TRENDS IN CONVECTION INTENSITY ALTHOUGH ITS CIRCULATION IS WELL PRONOUNCED ON BOTH NIGHT TIME VISIBLE AND INFRA-RED IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER OVER NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BROKEN RAIN BAND REMOVED FROM THE CENTER IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N115W 13N117W. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS TO THIS SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN ABOUT 12 HRS...AND HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HRS. LOW PRES NEAR 21N124W 1011 MB...REMNANTS OF CARLOTTA...MOVING W 12 KT. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED. SYSTEM IS REDUCED TO A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 48 HRS. LOW PRES NEAR 10NW99W 1009 MB IS MOVING W 10 KT. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID LEVELS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF THE LOW CONFINED TO ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W NORTH OF 7N IS MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 14N93.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY TIED IN WITH THE ITCZ FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 92W-94W. THIS WAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ..ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 8N84W 7N94W 10N100W 12N110W 12N120W 14N125W 76N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-92W...AND FROM 4N-6N EAST OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W-105W AND BETWEEN 125W-129W. ...DISCUSSION... AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 23N139W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 21N140W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 25N130W MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 KT. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N131W THROUGH 26N136.5W TO JUST NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N139W. MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OBSERVED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE RIDGE...OR FROM 12N-26N WEST OF 127W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA FROM 15N-21N WEST OF 135W WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR IS LOCATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EASING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 135W AS THE LARGE MID/UPPER CYCLONIC VORTEX THAT MOVED INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS NOW CROSSES INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC AS MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA COAST. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE VORTEX TO 25N1118W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 17N104W DOMINATES THE AREA INCLUDING THE UPPER LEVELS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. THIS FLOW IS ALSO HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. IN BETWEEN THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX AND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AMPLE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N94W SOUTH TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE TROUGH NEAR 19N94W IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KT. THE TROUGH MARKS A SHARP CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF EASTERLY WINDS TO ITS EAST TO NORTH TO ITS WEST. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 103W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OF 1017 MB IS ANALYZED NEAR 22N116W. A RIDGE ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N135W AND EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 26N119W. GAP WINDS...POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS NE 20 KT WINDS MAY OCCUR OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE