000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 20.4N 122.4W 1009 MB AT 2100 
UTC JUL 16 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NO CONVECTION IS LEFT.  A SWIRL OF LOW 
TO MIDDLE CLOUDS IS WITHIN 200 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE AND 90 
NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE.

LOW PRES NEAR 23N140W 1013 MB...REMNANTS OF BUD...IS MOVING W 15 
KT AND OUT OF THE AREA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W NORTH OF 5N MOVE W 10 KT.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.  THERE ARE 
NO INDICATIONS OF ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.

LOW PRES 10N98W 1009 MB MOVE W 10 KT.  CONVECTION IS WEAKENING 
AND ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.

LOW PRES 12N108W 1009 MB MOVING W 10-15 KT.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.  
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL 
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. THE SYSTEM SHOWS SOME 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

..ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 5N85W 
10N100W 10N110W 15N120W 6N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 80W TO 88W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 125W.  
THERE IS A BROKEN PATCH OF MIDDLE AND UPPER CLOUDS OFF THE COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE 
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.  OTHERWISE NO WEATHER ACCOMPANIES 
THIS SYSTEM.  

ELSEWHERE A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA.

NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 20N120W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 
137W THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  SOUTHEAST 
OF THIS LINE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE MOIST WITH AREAS OF 
MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 120W.  
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL