000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161443
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA NEAR 20.2N 121.5W 1008 MB AT 1500
UTC JUL 16 MOVING WNW OR 282 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. 

LOW PRES NEAR 22N138W 1009 MB...REMNANTS OF BUD...IS MOVING W 15 
KT. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N106W WITHIN IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL 
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS. STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF LINE 12N108W 15N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N102W 16N97W...AND OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N94W.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W TO THE N OF 5N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT 
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG AND 
ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 6N-11.5N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N90W.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS 8N78W 9N85W 11N97W 10N110W 
10N115W 15N120W THEN RESUMES AT 15N125W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED 
STRONG WITHIN 240 NM S OF ITCZ E OF 80W...AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF 
ITCZ BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 113W AND 
116W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD 15-20 KT 
IS NEAR 23N140W WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWEST TO 18N140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION. 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA 
THROUGH 32N123W TO NEAR 25N137W...JUST OVER THE TOP OF THE 
REMNANT LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM BUD AND SOME FROM CARLOTTA IS BEING 
ADVECTED NORTHWARD UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS EVENTUALLY 
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THE 
UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOTTA IS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE 
DISCUSSION AREA SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 131W AND 112W. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DR Y AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 
9N-24N WEST OF 130W.

AN UPPER CYCLONE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO NEAR 
31N109W...IS MOVING WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO
27N114W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N98W WITH ITS ENVELOPE 
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF 100W 
AND ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. 


$$
TORRE