000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161029 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 120.5W 1002 MB AT 0900 UTC JUL 16 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO SWIRL OF MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS AS THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE EXPOSED WITH TIME. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING WITHIN 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS CARLOTTA DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. LOW PRES NEAR 22N136W 1009 MB...REMNANTS OF BUD...IS MOVING W 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED. THIS SYSTEM IS BEST DESCRIBED AS A SWIRL OF MAINLY LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS COOL OCEAN WATERS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW PRESSURE NEAR 12N105W IS LOCATED ON A WAVE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 4N105W TO 15N104.5W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS. NO WELL ORGANIZED BANDING IS PRESENTLY NOTED...HOWEVER SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 12N108W 15N106W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 15N102W 16N97W...AND OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 45 NM OF 15N94W. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W/89W TO THE N OF 5N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT WITH ONLY ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OCCURRING ALONG AND ACROSS THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 6N-11.5N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N90W. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 9N85W 11N97W 10N110W 14N124W THEN RESUMES AT 11N128W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 80W...WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 80W-86W....AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 113W-116W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W-98W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD 15-20 KT IS NEAR 23N137.5W WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWEST TO 18N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA THROUGH 32N123W TO NEAR 25N137W...JUST OVER THE TOP OF THE REMNANT LOW PRES...REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM BUD AND SOME FROM CARLOTTA IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHWARD UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE AND IS EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOTTA IS SPREADING SOUTH OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 131W AND 112W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DR Y AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-24N WEST OF 130W. AN UPPER CYCLONE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO NEAR 31N107W...IS MOVING WESTWARD. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 27N114W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N98W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA EAST OF 100W AND ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 92W AND 108W. GAP WINDS...EASTERLY WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NE 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS. HIGH PRES OVER MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO CAUSE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HRS THEN DIMINISHING BY 36 HRS. $$ AGUIRRE