000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160323 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.7N 119.6W 996 MB AT 0300 UTC JUL 
16 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT 
GUSTS 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER IS 
EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 
17N121W 19N118W.

.REMNANT LOW PRES OF BUD NEAR 21.5N135W 1008 MB MOVING W 12 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WELL TO N OF CENTER...WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 23N135W 26N134W. BY 36 HOURS THE REMNANT LOW AND 
ALL ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF AREA. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 102.5W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 12 KT WITH LOW 
PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N 1009 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND 
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. CURRENTLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES WITH BANDING FEATURES 
OBSERVED THE PAST FEW HOURS. BANDING MAY ALSO BE DEVELOPING 
OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE.  

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W TO THE N OF 3N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT WITH 
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION FLARING FROM 3N TO 7N WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE AXIS.  

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N78W 10N115W 14N124W 9N131W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 9N95W 13N105W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
LINE 4N78W 10N93W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE 9N105W 16N118W 
8N131W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
BUT CURRENTLY HAS ITS AXIS WELL W OF THE AREA ALONG 148W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 35N118W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A 
CREST NEAR 26N138W...JUST OVER THE TOP OF THE REMNANT LOW PRES 
FROM FORMER TC BUD. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM BUD...AND SOME FROM 
CARLOTTA...IS ADVECTED N UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY 
SPREADS NE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THE UPPER DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM CARLOTTA SPREADS S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 
20N BETWEEN 131W AND 112W.  

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 19N138W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 
10N140W. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY FROM 21N TO 12N W OF 135W.  

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS SHIFTING W OVER N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO... 
CURRENTLY CENTERED AT 29N106W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S TO ANOTHER 
UPPER CYCLONE AT 23N108W...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING S AND 
LOSING IDENTITY NEAR 14N110W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 
15N96W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W AND ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 
106W AND 90W. 

GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT ENE 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR ABOUT 
ANOTHER 36 HOURS. HIGH PRES OVER SE CONUS WILL CAUSE NE WINDS IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 
20-25 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  
 
$$
NELSON