000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152157 RRA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA NEAR 19.4N 118.4W 990 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 
15 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT 
GUSTS 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF 
CARLOTTA HAS BECOME EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OVER S SEMICIRCLE. 

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NEAR NEAR 21.1N 
134.2W 1007 MB AT 2100 UTC JUL 15 WHILE MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 
13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT GUSTS 35 KT. REFER TO THE 
LAST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF BUD 
REMAINS EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WELL TO 
N OF CENTER...ROUGHLY WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 26N134W 
23N135W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101.5W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 12 KT WITH LOW 
PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 11N 1009 MB. MODEL GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND 
THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS. CURRENTLY 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW PRES BUT STILL WITH THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W TO THE N OF 3N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT WITH 
CONVECTION FLARING FROM 3N TO 7N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS.  

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 11N102W 9N110W 16N121W 9N132W 
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 4N78W 7N85W AND FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 94W AND 
113W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
BUT CURRENTLY HAS ITS AXIS WELL W OF THE AREA ALONG 150W. AN 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 35N115W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A 
CREST NEAR 24N137W...JUST OVER THE TOP OF DISSIPATING TD BUD. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM BUD...AND SOME FROM CARLOTTA...IS ADVECTED 
N UNDER THIS UPPER RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY SPREADS NE ACROSS 
CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THE UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CARLOTTA 
SPREADS S OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 
110W.  

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 20N138W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 
10N145W. THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY FROM 20N TO 12N W OF 135W.  

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS SHIFTING W OVER N CENTRAL OLD MEXICO... 
CURRENTLY CENTERED AT 27N104W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S ALONG 22N103W 
THROUGH ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE AT 17N108W...WITH THE TROUGH 
CONTINUING S AND LOSING IDENTITY NEAR 12N116W. AN UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 18N96W WITH ITS ENVELOPE OF ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W AND ENHANCING ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 107W AND 93W. 

GAP WINDS...ELY WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT ENE 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR ABOUT 
ANOTHER 36 HOURS. HIGH PRES OVER SE CONUS WILL CAUSE NE WINDS IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 
20-25 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  
 
$$
NELSON