000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151018 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.0N 116.5W...OR ABOUT 505 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 15/0900 UTC MOVING WEST AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CARLOTTA HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A 30 NM WIDE CORE OF VERY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OVER AND EAST OF WHAT THEN THE EYE FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM RESEMBLES THEN BUD A FEW DAYS AGO WHEN IT HAD VERY COMPACT CLOUD/CONVECTION AS IT IS PRESENTLY REVEALING. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR CARLOTTA IS ABOUT 26-27C...BUT WILL BE DECREASING AS CARLOTTA MOVES WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IMPINGING THE CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEGINNING LATER TODAY ...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BACK TO TROPICAL STORM WITH THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...THEREAFTER BECOMING A REMNANT LOW PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. TROPICAL STORM BUD HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AS OF 15/0900...AND IS CENTERED NEAR 20.4N 131.4W WHICH IS ABOUT 1390 NM WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD HAS JUST ABOUT LOST ALL OF ITS CONVECTION WITH THE EXEMPTION OF A SMALL BURST OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ABOUT 160 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER. BUD CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT IN ADDITION TO IT ALSO ENCOUNTERING COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 22C. LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BUD BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W/99W N OF 3N IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS TIED IN WITH A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AREA OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY BEING OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ. THIS CONVECTION AS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ APPEARS TO BE PULSATING IN INTENSITY BUT SHOWS NO CONSOLIDATION AS IT REMAINS DISORGANIZED. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE FROM THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 9N90W 9N100W TO 12N111W THEN RESUMES AT 15N124W THROUGH 10N130W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 95W-99W...AND WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NORTH AND 120 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-110W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 110W-113W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 121W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA THROUGH 32N134W AND EXTENDS THROUGH 27N137.5W TO 26N140W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 133W. LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS IS MOVING WESTWARD WHILE DISTORTING THE WIND REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT...WINDS ALONG 110W HAVE BECOME PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURRED OVER MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 118W/119W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS NEAR 26N118W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15-20 KT. FARTHER SOUTH...AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N140W TO 21N132W WITH AMPLE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO ITS EAST. BROAD NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW IS PREVALENT SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-128W AND IS THE SAME FLOW THAT IS INTRUDING UPON CARLOTTA'S NE QUADRANT OUTFLOW PATTERN. E OF 110W... CONVECTION IS QUITE ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO A BROAD CIRCULATION FOUND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W/99W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA NORTH OF 12N AS WELL OVER MEXICO AND WATERS ADJACENT THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE ITCZ...WHILE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE WESTWARD WEST OF 90W...EXCEPT NORTH OF 12N WHERE THE MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED NORTHWARD DUE TO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX OVER MEXICO. $$ AGUIRRE