000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150335 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 115.4W...OR ABOUT 385 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 15/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED AGAIN TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS BEEN UPGRADED BACK TO HURRICANE STATUS DUE TO A SATELLITE PRESENTATION WHICH BEGAN IMPROVING AROUND 2100 UTC. A RAGGED/OBSCURED EYE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER...ALBEIT A LITTLE THIN OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE FOR THE MOMENT. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR CARLOTTA IS ABOUT 26-27C...BUT WILL BE DECREASING AS CARLOTTA MOVES W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SW AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE IN SPIRAL BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 130.0W...OR ABOUT 1130 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 15/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SHALLOW AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE N OF THE CENTER SO IT LIKELY STILL HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. DRY STABLE AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE SYSTEM...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY ABOUT 22C SO BUD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W N OF 4N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ITCZ BUT CONVECTION REMAINS DISORGANIZED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED CONVECTION. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 8N90W 8N100W 12N108W THEN 15N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM N AND 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO LIFT N OF THE AREA ALONG 130W WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N135W 27N140W. THE LOW IS RIDING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S...AND IS PRODUCING ELY FLOW FROM THE DRY MEXICAN PLATEAU TO W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF 21N E OF 124W...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR 26N116W WHICH ROLLED OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER S...AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N140W TO 20N128W WITH HIGH MOISTURE VALUES TO THE E. BROAD N/NE FLOW LIES S OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W AND IS HELPING TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW TO HURRICANE CARLOTTA AND SPREADING THE CIRRUS SW TOWARDS THE ITCZ. E OF 110W... CONVECTION HAS FLARED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SKIES ARE MOSTLY FAIR N OF 12N TO THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THEN MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FARTHER E FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS INCREASING S OF THE ITCZ...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VORTICITY TO SPIN UP AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 100W OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ELY... FEEDING A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. $$ BERG