000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 19.8N 128.5W...OR ABOUT 1050 NM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD CONSISTS OF A SHIELD OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE CENTER WITH SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION OVER THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS RUNNING INTO A MUCH DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND IT IS CURRENTLY OVER SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22C...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM N AND NE QUADRANTS. TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.6N 114.4W...OR ABOUT 365 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED TO 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS A NEARLY CIRCULAR 120 NM WIDE CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION PASSING JUST N OF CLARION ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS RAGGED...PULSES OF TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO FORM PRIMARILY E OF THE CENTER. TWO SPIRAL BANDS APPEAR TO BE FORMING WITH A SLIGHT BREAK BETWEEN THEM AND THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS WITHIN 240 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 4N MOVING W 10 KT. AN ORGANIZING CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOTED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS AREA INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRES WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 96W-102W TIED TO THE ITCZ. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 8N90W 8N100W 12N108W THEN 15N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW W OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO LIFT N OF THE AREA ALONG 130W WITH A WEAK TROUGH TRAILING INTO THE AREA ALONG 30N135W 27N140W. THE LOW IS RIDING AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE U.S...AND IS PRODUCING ELY FLOW FROM THE DRY MEXICAN PLATEAU TO W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR N OF 20N E OF 123W...EXCEPT CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROLLING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N. FARTHER S...AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 6N140W TO 20N128W WITH MOISTURE VALUES MUCH HIGHER TOWARDS THE E. BROAD N/NE FLOW LIES S OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-125W AND IS HELPING TO PROVIDE OUTFLOW TO T.S. CARLOTTA AND SPREADING THE CIRRUS SW TOWARDS THE ITCZ. E OF 110W... CONVECTION HAS FLARED ALONG THE ITCZ WITH A CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SSW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SKIES ARE MOSTLY FAIR N OF 12N TO THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THEN MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FARTHER E FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA. CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS INCREASING S OF THE ITCZ...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH VORTICITY TO SPIN UP AN AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 100W OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA IS MAINLY ELY...FEEDING A CONTINUOUS SUPPLY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. $$ BERG