000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 127.1W...OR ABOUT 
1130 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/1500 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 
55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AS THE CYCLONE 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C 
(COLDER THAN THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD). IN ADDITION...BUD IS 
RUNNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS TO ITS W.

HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 113.7W...OR ABOUT 395 
NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/1500 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SE 
SEMICIRCLE WITH A NOTICEABLE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
NW SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING SEVERELY RESTRICTED 
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BY STRONG NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W/96W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 10 KT. THIS WAVE 
IS PART OF AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE MAINLY TIED TO THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 88W-100W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND 
RELATED ITCZ COMPONENT IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. GLOBAL 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEFINITE CENTER WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 9N100W 15N110W 
10N126W 6N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 88W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 108W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N132W IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY 
SHEARED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS. FEATURES IS 
BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSORBED INTO A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH W 
OF BRITISH COLOMBIA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 
THE LOW TO 21N140W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING FROM FLOW 
CONFLUENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BUD IS SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD 
TO 130W AND ALSO NORTHWARD E OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOTED ABOVE. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO DIFFLUENCE 
EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N137W TO 15N130W.

E OF THE TWO CYCLONES....A LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE 
EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST AT
ROUGHLY 24N97W. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL AMERICA. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW SPREADS TO ACROSS MUCH OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EAST PACIFIC EAST OF 100W. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALONG 95W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA AT 10N81W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING 
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS BEING SUSTAINED UNDER THIS RIDGE.
 
$$
COBB