000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141024
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 125.9W...OR ABOUT 1050 NM 
WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/0900 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED AS THE CYCLONE 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C 
(COLDER THAN THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD). IN ADDITION...BUD IS 
RUNNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS TO ITS W.

HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 112.1W...OR ABOUT 430 
NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/0900 
UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS CHANGED 
LITTLE IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND 
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EMBEDDED EYE FEATURE IN THE CONVECTION. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
CENTER...EXCEPT 20 NM OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN SPIRAL RAIN BANDS ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 
OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY 
STRONG NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL WINDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 4N IS MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
PART OF AN AREA OF ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE MAINLY TIED TO THE 
ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 88W-100W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND
RELATED ITCZ COMPONENT IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS.
 
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N80W 8N90W 10N105W 13N118W 10N128W
7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
87W-102W....AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-121W AND
ALSO BETWEEN 123W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N133W CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF 
BRITISH COLOMBIA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM
THE LOW TO 20N140W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING FROM FLOW 
CONFLUENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE BUD IS SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD TO 
130W...AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO 
DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 7N137W
TO 15N130W.

E OF THE TWO CYCLONES....A LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE 
EXTREME WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEARING THE MEXICAN COAST AT
ROUGHLY 24N97W. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NORTHWEST CENTRAL AMERICA. 
DIFFLUENT FLOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW SPREADS TO ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND EAST PACIFIC EAST OF LINE 14N100W TO 14N88W. 
THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR 
OF GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA AT 10N81W WITH 
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IS BEING SUSTAINED
UNDER THIS RIDGE.
 
$$
AGUIRRE