000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 18.9N 124.6W...OR ABOUT 860 NM 
WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD'S EYE HAS BECOME 
OBSCURED BY THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING IT AND THE TSTM 
ACTIVITY IS DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER 
WATER NEAR 24C (COLDER THAN THE NECESSARY THRESHOLD). IN 
ADDITION...BUD IS RUNNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS 
TO ITS W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N 
AND 75 NM S SEMICIRCLES.

HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 112.1W...OR ABOUT 310 
NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 14/0300 
UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA IS PULSING 
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...AND THE EYE HAS BEEN 
EMBEDDED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HRS. ONE PROMINENT SPIRAL BAND 
EXTENDS OUT THE SE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH UPPER OUTFLOW SHOWING 
UP BEST TO THE N AND S. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM E AND 60 NM W SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE IN SPIRAL BANDS 
IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RELOCATED ALONG 93W N OF 3N MOVING W 15 
KT. A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP S OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND THE RESULTING CONVERGENCE IS 
PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ EWD 
TO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW PRES 
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS.
 
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N80W 9N90W 13N98W 11N105W THEN 
15N118W 5N134W 6N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF 
THE AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL LOCATED NEAR 32N133W BUT IS 
BEGINNING TO LIFT N AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGER 
LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF BRITISH COLOMBIA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 
S/SW OF THE LOW TO 20N138W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING FROM 
FLOW CONFLUENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH HURRICANE BUD IS CREEPING WWD TO 130W...AND DEEPER 
CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO DIFFLUENCE E OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 8N135W 14N130W.

E OF THE TWO HURRICANES...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING S/SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NW CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AXIS OF 
BROAD DIFFLUENCE LIES ROUGHLY FROM 14N100W TO PANAMA AND IS 
HELPING TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 
100W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRES 
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...ALONG A 
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS TRAILING BEHIND HURRICANE CARLOTTA.
 
$$
BERG