000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 123.3W...OR ABOUT 800 NM 
WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 13/2100 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 95 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 115 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD IS BEGINNING TO RUN 
INTO DRY AIR TO ITS W AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS SHOWING 
THIS WITH A FLATTENING OF THE CLOUD FIELD. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND THE EYE IS BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED... 
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL DOES HAVE A CIRCULARLY SYMMETRIC 
PATTERN. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER.

HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 111.3W...OR ABOUT 395 
NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 13/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS AN ILL-DEFINE EYE WHICH 
FREQUENTLY BECOMES COVERED BY CLOUD TOPS FROM DEEP CONVECTION IN 
THE EYEWALL. THE TSTMS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE TAKEN ON AN 
AMORPHOUS SHAPE WITH A RAGGED SPIRAL BAND COMING OUT THE SE SIDE 
OF THE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE IN SPIRAL BANDS IS ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM SE AND S QUADRANTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 2N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE DOES 
NOT HAVE AN APPARENT CIRCULATION BUT IS INCREASING THE COVERAGE 
AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ OVER PANAMA AND COSTA 
RICA. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N BETWEEN 
77W-87W.
 
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 9N90W 11N105W THEN 15N120W 
7N132W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 77W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 150 
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL LOCATED NEAR 31N132W BUT IS 
BEGINNING TO DRIFT N AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGER 
LONGWAVE TROUGH W OF BRITISH COLOMBIA. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS 
S/SW OF THE LOW TO 20N137W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING FROM 
FLOW CONFLUENCE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH HURRICANE BUD IS CREEPING WWD TO 130W...AND DEEPER 
CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG THE ITCZ DUE TO DIFFLUENCE E OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 9N134W 14N130W.

E OF THE TWO HURRICANES...A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PRODUCING S/SW UPPER FLOW ACROSS 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NW CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AXIS OF 
BROAD DIFFLUENCE LIES ROUGHLY FROM 14N100W TO PANAMA AND IS 
HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 
100W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRES 
FROM THIS CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS...TRAILING IN THE 
WAKE OF HURRICANE CARLOTTA.
 
$$
BERG