000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 122.0W...OR ABOUT 730 NM 
SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 13/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 120 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD CONTINUES TO SHOW A 
SYMMETRIC PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE.  
THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER 
WATER. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES.  NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 
45 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.

HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.3N 110.4W...OR ABOUT 300 
NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 13/1500 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  CARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED AN ASYMMETRIC PATTERN 
TO THE CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED IN THE 
NORTHWEST PART OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AND UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SYMMETRIC 
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOW.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS GOOD IN 
ALL QUADRANTS.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
45 NM OF CENTER EXCEPT TO 90 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER.
 
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG...5N76W 11N95W 10N105W WITH A BREAK 
IN THE ITCZ SOUTH OF CARLOTTA AND CONTINUING FROM 16N116W 5N135W 
6N140W.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS EAST OF 95W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 116W TO 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N125W TO 20N130W TO 20N140W.  AN EMBEDDED MIDDLE LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 31N131W.  THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT NORTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS REGION IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IN 
TH LOWER LEVELS.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS JUST NORTH OF THE TWO HURRICANES AND EXTENDS 
FROM 18N TO 28N EAST OF 123W.  THIS AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS BUT IS CLOUD FREE N OF 20N W OF 115W.

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THE ABOVE TWO TROUGHS. 
DEEP-LAYERED DRY AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE RIDGE...COVERING THE 
AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N110W TO 20N126W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 
133W.  EAST OF THE LINE THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH MULTI LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH TIP 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N125W TO 15N140W.  ELSEWHERE A BROAD 
TROUGH WITH THE EMBEDDED HURRICANES IS ANALYZED.
 
$$
LL