000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130951 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUL 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 17.5N 120.5W...OR ABOUT 800 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 13/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD IS EXHIBITING A VERY SYMMETRIC CORE CONSISTING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND A CLEAR DEFINED WARM TEMPERATURE EYE...AND ITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT OVER ALL QUADRANTS AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EYE IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE EYE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DENOTING OUTER BROKEN SPIRAL BANDS IS SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CORE FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 116W-119W. HURRICANE CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 109.4W...OR ABOUT 350 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 13/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. LARGE BURST OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS (WHITE TOPS) OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA SUGGESTS THAT THIS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...AND SO IT IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 0900 UTC. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS VERY GOOD AROUND CARLOTTA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 90 NM OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN SPIRAL BANDS IS ELSEWHERE 330 NM SOUTH QUADRANT AND 180 NM SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NE QUADRANT. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N90W 12N107W 12N130W 9N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN NORTH OF 3N EAST OF 79W...AND WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-101.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 129W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 31N130W WITH A BAND OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO 24N133W 24N140W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HRS THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH FARTHER NORTH. A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO 22N130W. DEEP-LAYERED DRY AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE RIDGE... COVERING THE AREA WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N114W TO 9N133W. ELSEWHERE...NORTHEAST TO EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC...INCLUDING OVER HURRICANE BUD AND TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. THIS FLOW IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE BUD AND CARLOTTA. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF CARLOTTA TO ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. THE ITCZ IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EAST OF 100W DUE TO LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT NEW LOW PRESSURE MAY EVOLVE FROM THE ITCZ BETWEEN 90W-94W OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AND TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE