000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 13 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N 118.9W...OR ABOUT 615 NM SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 13/0300 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 120 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG DEEP CONVECTION 
CONTINUES TO WRAP MORE UNIFORMLY AROUND THE EYE OF BUD WITH THE 
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -79C. THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT 
OBSCURED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS OF THE 
CONVECTION IS EXPANDING AND COVERING THE CENTER. UPPER OUTFLOW 
REMAINS THE BEST TO THE S DUE TO AN OUTFLOW JET...AND IT IS A 
LITTLE LIMITED OVER THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG IN SPIRAL BANDS IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 150 NM 
NW SEMICIRCLES.

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 107.9W...OR ABOUT 
265 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 13/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE 
LONG SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. THE CONVECTION NEAR 
THE CENTER HAS ALSO INCREASED IN INTENSITY WITH CLOUD TOPS 
COOLING TO -82C. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL 
QUADRANTS BUT IS HIGHLIGHTED BY TWO OUTFLOW JETS TO THE NE AND 
SW. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG IN SPIRAL BANDS IS ELSEWHERE 300 NM S 
AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLES.
  
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N88W 16N107W 7N132W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 80W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 118W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 30N130W WITH A BAND OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SW 
TO 24N132W 25N140W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER 
LONGWAVE TROUGH FARTHER N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER NW MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 22N130W. 
DEEP-LAYERED DRY AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE RIDGE...LYING 
EXCLUSIVELY W OF A LINE FROM 30N114W 10N133W.

ELSEWHERE...NE/E UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC...INCLUDING OVER HURRICANE BUD AND TROPICAL STORM 
CARLOTTA. THE NELY FLOW IS PRODUCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW JETS 
OVER EACH TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH CARLOTTA HAS PRODUCED AN 
MORE EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. FARTHER E...AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS E OF CARLOTTA OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TOWARDS 
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE E OF 
100W DUE TO LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
FLOW. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES FROM 
9N-13N BETWEEN 98W-101W...BUT THEN THE AREA TO THE E TOWARDS THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST CLEARS OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
 
$$
BERG