000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 117.5W...OR ABOUT 585 NM SW 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 12/2100 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 110 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD HAS ONCE AGAIN 
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND STRONGER CONVECTION (WITH CLOUD 
TOPS AS COLD AS -78C) IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. 
THE HURRICANE HAS TWO PRIMARY SPIRAL BANDS TO THE N AND S...BUT 
THESE ARE NOT AS PROMINENT AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. BUD IS A 
SMALL HURRICANE...ONLY ABOUT 300 NM IN DIAMETER...SO IT HAS NOT 
REALLY DEVELOPED A BROAD OUTFLOW PATTERN BUT ALSO HAS NOT 
SUCCUMBED TO SOME ELY SHEAR OVER THE N PORTION. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG IN SPIRAL BANDS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 106.4W...OR ABOUT 
260 NM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 12/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 
12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS A LARGER CIRCULATION WITH MORE 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN BUD. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES ONE 
LARGE BAND WRAPS FROM THE NW COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE 
SYSTEM...BUT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT 
CONTINUOUS WITHIN THIS BAND. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER CARLOTTA 
IS ALSO MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN OVER BUD...AND TWO OUTFLOW JETS 
HAVE SET UP OUT OF THE SW AND N/NE QUADRANTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SW AND 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.
  
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 10N97W 15N106W 16N114W 7N130W 
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LOW IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 30N130W WITH A BAND OF 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SW 
TO 24N132W 25N140W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY 
STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER 
LONGWAVE TROUGH FARTHER N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER NW MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 22N130W. 
DEEP-LAYERED DRY AIR IS COLLOCATED WITH THE RIDGE...LYING 
EXCLUSIVELY W OF A LINE FROM 30N112W 10N133W.

ELSEWHERE...NE/E UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC...INCLUDING OVER HURRICANE BUD AND TROPICAL STORM 
CARLOTTA. THE NELY FLOW IS PRODUCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW JETS 
OVER EACH TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH CARLOTTA HAS PRODUCED AN 
MORE EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. FARTHER E...AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDS E OF CARLOTTA OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TOWARDS 
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE ITCZ IS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE E OF 
100W DUE TO LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL 
FLOW. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO LIES FROM 
9N-14N BETWEEN 93W-99W...BUT THEN THE AREA TO THE E TOWARDS THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST CLEARS OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
 
$$
BERG