000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 116.2W...OR ABOUT 560 NM 
SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 12/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 105 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  BUD LOST THE EYE 
FEATURE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT HAS REFORMED AN EYE SHORTLY AFTER 
1200 UTC.  THE EYE IS ABOUT 25 NM IN DIAMETER.  BUD HAS A 
SYMMETRICAL CORE STRUCTURE EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  A BANDING FEATURE IS FORMING ON THE 
SOUTHEAST AND EAST SIDE OF BUD.  AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SOUTH 
OF THE CENTER ALONG 13.3N FROM 117W TO 120W IS INDIRECTLY 
RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF BUD.  MODERATE TO WEAK UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED IN THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 15.4N115.9W.
BUD IS FORECAST CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS 
BEFORE UNDERGOING A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES IN A 
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 105.3W...OR 
ABOUT 380 NM SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 12/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AS NOTED BY ITS 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE CONTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD 
TOPS AS EXHIBITED ON LATEST IR IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT.  NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 13.8N105.4W.  
ALSO INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION IS SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 
17.1N105.8W.  LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS CARLOTTA REACHING MINIMAL 
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THEN STRENGTHENING SOME 
MORE THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE GOING INTO A WEAKENING STAGE.
  
..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 5N85W 11N100W 10N120W 7N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
POINT 6.2N79.8W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN THE AREA FROM 10.7N TO 14N FROM 90.5W TO 94W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE THROUGH 
32N115W TO 20N140W. A SMALL MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N131W.  THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 15N IS COVERED BY WEAK 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  SOUTH OF 15N BROAD TROUGH HIS PRESENT 
IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  THE AREA WEST OF A LINE 30N112W 
TO THE ITCZ NEAR 133W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH OVERCAST OCCASIONALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS.  EAST OF THIS LINE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
PRESENT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION.  THIS AREA ALSO INCLUDES THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTH TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 12N140W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH WITH THE TWO 
TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
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LL