000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 15.0N 115.3W...OR ABOUT 700 NM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 12/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AFTER UNDERGOING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE LAST NIGHT...BUD CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE FEATURE...ABOUT 14 NM IN WIDTH...ALONG WITH A VERY SYMMETRICAL CORE STRUCTURE AND RAPID GROWING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EAST EYE WALL AND EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FOR 45 NM IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT CLEAR CUT AT THE PRESENT TIME...HOWEVER AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 115W-117W...AND WITHIN ABOUT 35 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 13N117.5W TO 14N118W. BUD IS FORECAST CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE UNDERGOING A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 103.9W...OR ABOUT 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 12/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CARLOTTA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AS NOTED BY ITS RAPIDLY GROWING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE CONTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AS EXHIBITED ON LATEST IR IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER...EXCEPT 170 NM WEST QUADRANT. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION...FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SPIRAL BAND...IS NOW WITHIN AN AREA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 103.5W-107W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAND FORMING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS CONSISTS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 11N105W 12N103W. LATEST NHC ADVISORY HAS CARLOTTA REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THEN STRENGTHENING SOME MORE THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE GOING INTO A WEAKENING STAGE. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 10N95W 14N102W 11N127W 8N136W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W-124W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW...ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER...IS MOVING ESE 10-15 KT NEAR 30N131W WITH A SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SW TO 26N140W. THIS AXIS LIES ADJACENT TO AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO SOUTHWEST TO 15N140W...AND UPPER CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 131W-140W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT EARLIER APPROACHED THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE INTERIOR ARE NOW DISSIPATING AS THEY ENCOUNTER DRY AIR. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST WEST OF 119W. TROPICAL PACIFIC... DEEP EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...WITH HURRICANE BUD AND TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED W OF 125W WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 125W-130W. FARTHER E...SPORADIC PATCHES OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR EXITS EAST OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 115 NM OF THE CENTRAL A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT IS LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 20N105.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW. $$ AGUIRRE