000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 12 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE BUD IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 114.1W...OR 555 NM SSW OF 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING 
WNW 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD UNDERWENT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION 
CYCLE OVER THE PAST 6 HRS OR SO...AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SOLID 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN EYE 15 NM WIDE...AND TWO DOMINANT 
SPIRAL BANDS AROUND THE W AND SE SEMICIRCLES. THE STRENGTH OF 
THE CONVECTION HAS WANED A BIT BUT BUD NEVERTHELESS HAS A 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND CLOUD PATTERN. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IN SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 240 NM SW AND 150 NM NE 
SEMICIRCLES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 102.8W...OR 
220 NM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AT 12/0300 UTC MOVING WNW 11 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE AREA OF LOW PRES SW OF ACAPULCO HAS 
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HRS TO 
BECOME T.D. FOUR-E. LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL 
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND THEN TWO SPIRAL 
BANDS IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING AROUND THE N AND SW QUADRANTS. 
THESE BANDS ARE FORMING ADJACENT TO TWO OUTFLOW JETS WHICH ARE 
PROMOTING A FAVORABLY DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS A LARGE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 
95W AND 108W...BUT IS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE SPIRAL 
BANDS.

..ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 10N95W 14N102W 11N127W 8N136W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 119W-130W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N132W 
DRIFTING SE WITH A SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SW TO 27N140W. THIS AXIS 
LIES ADJACENT TO AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO SW TO 
15N140W...AND UPPER CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE N OF 28N E OF 130W. DRY AIR IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT 
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NW MEXICAN COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 
FEW TSTMS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE MOUNTAINS. WIDESPREAD 
STRATOCUMULUS LIE W OF 118W ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...WITH 
HURRICANE BUD AND T.D. FOUR-E EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. 
DEEP MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED W OF 120W AND CONVECTION IS 
LINEAR ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. FARTHER E...A SECOND PATCH OF DRY 
AIR IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST N OF 6N BETWEEN 
85W-93W...SANDWICHED BETWEEN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. 
FOUR-E AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS S OF PANAMA.
 
$$
BERG