000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112134 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 11 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM BUD CENTERED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W...OR 570 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 11/1500 UTC MOVING WNW 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BUD HAS BEEN UNDERGOING IMPRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST FEW HRS WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING MORE THAN ONCE AROUND THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SHADOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...POSSIBLY THE BEGINNINGS OF A BANDING EYE. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND WITH THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING A BIT...BUT THIS IS A NORMAL CYCLE AND FURTHER INTENSIFCATION IS EXPECTED. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 120 NW SEMICIRCLES. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N102W...ABOUT 260 NM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING WNW A LITTLE FASTER AT 15-20 KT. THE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING MAINLY AROUND THE E AND N SEMICIRCLES. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RELATIVELY GOOD AROUND THE SYSTEM...EXCEPT IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED OVER THE NW QUADRANT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS. IN FACT...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH WITH FORMATION...EVEN MORE SO THAN FOR T.S. BUD. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 94W-105W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 125W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N125W BUT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...INDICATING THAT THE WAVE HAS LIKELY MOVED ON. THE LOW HAS ALSO BECOME SHEARED AND ELONGATED AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE ITCZ. ..ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 12N100W 14N113W 8N135W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 79W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W-129W. ...DISCUSSION... SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC... A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N132W DRIFTING SE WITH A SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SW TO 27N140W. THIS AXIS LIES ADJACENT TO AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO SW TO 15N140W...AND UPPER CONFLUENCE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 28N E OF 130W. DRY AIR IS PRODUCING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST N OF PUERTO VALLARTA... INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS LIE W OF 118W ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TROPICAL PACIFIC... DEEP EASTERLY FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC...WITH T.S. BUD AND A SECOND LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. DEEP MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED W OF 120W AND CONVECTION IS LINEAR ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS. FARTHER E...A SECOND PATCH OF DRY AIR IS LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST N OF 6N BETWEEN 85W-93W...SANDWICHED BETWEEN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SW OF ACAPULCO AND ANOTHER CLUSTER OF TSTMS S OF PANAMA. $$ BERG